SlimesTier 2
at Hong Kong Regional 2024
decks
35
(35.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
110
46-51-13
overall winrate
47.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.2%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1230
· median 1187
· range 1082–1730
(35 pilots with an ELO rating)
1056
Q1 1167
Q3 1308
1730
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
23% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.0% | 25 | 12-11-2 | 52.0% | 51.7% | 49.4% | -0.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 11.0% | 18 | 6-9-3 | 41.7% | 43.2% | 44.4% | -2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 12 | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 48.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.5% | +1.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 12 | 5-5-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +9.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 45.6% | -2.5 |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.1% | -4.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.2% | -7.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +15.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.4 |
Decklists · 35 from this event
The 35 public Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 25 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Reprogram, Baby Blue Slime, Gaia's Songbird. Losers more often ran: Slime King, Slime's Blessing, Slimeshield.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 9.
Baby Blue Slime
Winning decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
15, the loser ran more in 7,
both ran the same in 3.
Gaia's Songbird
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
13, the loser ran more in 8,
both ran the same in 4.
Tera Sight
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 11.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 14.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 25 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 14.
Slime King
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
11, the winner ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 8.
Slime's Blessing
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 12.
Slimeshield
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 3.3.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 15.
Verdant Slime
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 13.
Red Slime
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 19.
Ordinary Bear
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 25 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 10.
Show all 67 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reprogram | +0.32 | 12 | 4 | 4 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | +0.32 | 15 | 7 | 1 | |
| Slime King | -0.20 | 6 | 11 | 7 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.20 | 13 | 8 | 3 | |
| Slime's Blessing | -0.20 | 4 | 9 | 2 | |
| Slimeshield | -0.16 | 3 | 7 | 15 | |
| Verdant Slime | -0.16 | 4 | 8 | 5 | |
| Tera Sight | +0.16 | 9 | 5 | 0 | |
| Red Slime | -0.16 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -0.12 | 6 | 9 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.12 | 7 | 4 | 10 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| Slime Totem | -0.12 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Smack with Flute | -0.12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | +0.08 | 4 | 2 | 19 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | +0.08 | 2 | 0 | 23 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.08 | 4 | 2 | 18 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.08 | 5 | 7 | 5 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.08 | 2 | 0 | 20 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +0.08 | 2 | 0 | 23 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +0.08 | 9 | 7 | 7 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.08 | 2 | 0 | 23 | |
| Gaia's Blessing | +0.08 | 2 | 0 | 23 | |
| Vampiric Slime | +0.08 | 9 | 7 | 4 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -0.08 | 5 | 7 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.08 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Key Slime Pudding | -0.08 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.08 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Mending | -0.08 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.08 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.08 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Storm Slime | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 24 | |
| Blissful Calling | -0.04 | 9 | 10 | 2 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 24 | |
| Gather Slimes | +0.04 | 3 | 2 | 20 | |
| Limitless Slime | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 22 | |
| Lustrous Slime | -0.04 | 6 | 7 | 12 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.04 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Stonescale Band | +0.04 | 2 | 1 | 22 | |
| Baby Gray Slime | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 24 | |
| Baby Green Slime | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 24 | |
| Twilight Slime | -0.04 | 8 | 9 | 2 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 24 | |
| Engineered Slime | -0.04 | 6 | 7 | 2 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.04 | 11 | 10 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.04 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | +0.04 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.04 | 8 | 7 | 2 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.04 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.04 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime Nexus | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blue Slime | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.04 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.04 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +0.00 | 8 | 8 | 9 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 21 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 8 | 8 | 8 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.00 | 7 | 7 | 11 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |
| Green Slime | +0.00 | 7 | 7 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mechanical Hare | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Steady Verse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |