Water NeosTier 2
at Hong Kong Regional 2024
decks
2
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-5-1
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.9%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1404
· median 1404
· range 1310–1499
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1056
Q1 1167
Q3 1308
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 35.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.9% | +4.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 11.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.0% | +8.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
