Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Hong Kong Regional 2024
decks
14
(14.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
54
19-31-4
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.4%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1196
· median 1173
· range 1077–1372
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
1056
Q1 1167
Q3 1308
1730
21% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
43% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 35.0% | 25 | 11-12-2 | 48.0% | 48.3% | 50.6% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 11.0% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.9% | -14.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -5.9 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Veiling Breeze, Reclaim. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Lantern, Reprogram, Dream Fairy.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Mastermind Scheme
Winning decks ran 4.2
copies on average,
losing decks 4.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Sharpen Blade
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Dream Fairy
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Imperial Spy | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Final Stroke | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |