Fire EruptingTier 2
at 台灣 中部地區 Regional
decks
3
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
2-9-0
overall winrate
18.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.7%
avg ELO -7.5 per match
expected value
42.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1344
· median 1419
· range 1135–1477
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1252
Q3 1418
1694
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
