Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at 台灣 中部地區 Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 8 | 4-1-3 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 58.3% | +4.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.6% | +5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Lorraine | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.1% | -20.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 35.6% | -10.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fractal of Intrusion. Losers more often ran: Frostbind.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |