← 台灣 中部地區 Regional

Water Astra ClericTier 2

at 台灣 中部地區 Regional

decks
5 (6.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27 10-15-2
overall winrate
40.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.3% avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
45.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1356 · median 1284 · range 1253–1568 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1097 Q1 1252 Q3 1418 1694
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 15.8% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.6% -0.2
Fire Luxem Assassin 11.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 42.6% -5.5
Water Ravishing Mill 7.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.4% -7.3
Wind Shadowstrike 7.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.7% -13.3
Fire Aggro 6.6% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 28.4% -16.1
Fire Lorraine 5.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.2% -16.1
Wind Allies 5.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.2% +11.6
Fire Crux Mage 3.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.0% -1.0
Fire Erupting 3.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.0% -1.0
Water Allies 3.9% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 3.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.2% +13.1
Fire Arcane 2.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.4% +18.2
Fire Crux Hybrid 2.6% 0
Water Neos 2.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 50.7% +0.6
Fire Astra Cleric 1.3% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.3% 0
Wind Beast 1.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.1% +1.7
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.0% -19.3
Wind Silvie 1.3% 0
Wind Slice & Dice 1.3% 0
Wind Slimes 1.3% 0
Wind Tera Silvie 1.3% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Water Astra Cleric decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Dusklight Communion -1.00 0 1 0
Conjure Downpour -1.00 0 1 0
Empowering Prayer +1.00 1 0 0
Stream of Consciousness +1.00 1 0 0
Shadow's Twin -1.00 0 1 0
Astarte, Celestial Dawn +1.00 1 0 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Fractal of Intrusion -1.00 0 1 0
Meteor Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Reprogram +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Morgan, Soul Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Memento Mori +1.00 1 0 0
Cometfall +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/7840/archetypes/Water Astra Cleric