Water AlliesTier 2
at 台灣 中部地區 Regional
decks
3
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
9-10-2
overall winrate
47.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1315
· median 1352
· range 1135–1459
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1252
Q3 1418
1694
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 39.7% | -5.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.4% | +10.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Wind Beast | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
