Water NeosTier 2
at 台灣 中部地區 Regional
decks
2
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-7-1
overall winrate
46.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1263
· median 1263
· range 1249–1276
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1252
Q3 1418
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 6.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Fire Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Beast | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
