← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2
Fire AggroTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.1% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 47.8% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.2% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.4% | -1.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 52.5% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 43.9% | -4.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -3.0 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 48.0% | -1.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Tera Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.8 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Powered Sentinel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |