← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.1% | 17 | 5-8-4 | 41.2% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.2% | 13 | 8-3-2 | 69.2% | 64.7% | 54.4% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 53.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 54.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.7% | -3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 5 | 0-3-2 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 44.0% | -3.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.1% | -2.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tera Tamer | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Water Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Memento Mori | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |