← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2

Fire Crux LorraineTier 2

at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2

decks
2 (1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14 8-4-2
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8% avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
53.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1272 · median 1272 · range 1270–1274 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000 Q1 1236 Q3 1423 1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 18.1% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 52.2% +2.2
Wind Shadowstrike 16.2% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 8.8% 0
Wind Allies 8.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.7% -5.2
Fire Crux Mage 7.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.8% +0.7
Fire Crux Hybrid 5.0% 0
Fire Aggro 4.4% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 52.0% +1.3
Fire Slimes 3.8% 0
Water Allies 3.8% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 2.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.8% +6.1
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.9% 0
Fire Erupting 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.6% -3.8
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.2% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.2% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.2% 0
Water Neos 1.2% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 1.2% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.2% 0
Fire Arcane 0.6% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.1% +6.6
Fire Neos 0.6% 0
Fire Zander 0.6% 0
Norm Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Tera Tamer 0.6% 0
Water Beast 0.6% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.6% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.6% 0
Water Lorraine 0.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.6% -0.7
Water Luxem Assassin 0.6% 0
Water Slimes 0.6% 0
Water Tera Silvie 0.6% 0
Wind Crux Mage 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.0% +8.0
Wind Diana 0.6% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 0.6% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Vermilion Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Reduce to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter +1.00 1 0 0
Veteran Blazebearer +1.00 1 0 0
Ghosts of Pendragon -1.00 0 1 0
Dungeon Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Dusklight Communion +1.00 1 0 0
Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit Blade: Dispersion -1.00 0 1 0
Excalibur, Cursed Sword +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Adversity -1.00 0 1 0
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler +1.00 1 0 0
Forgelight Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Hone by Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Surging Bolt +1.00 1 0 0
Honorable Vanguard -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit Blade: Ensoul -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Devastating Blow -1.00 0 1 0
Meltdown -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs +1.00 1 0 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +1.00 1 0 0
Savage Slash -1.00 0 1 0
Flame Sweep -1.00 0 1 0
Crux Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit's Blessing -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Diana, Cursebreaker +1.00 1 0 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Throw +1.00 1 0 0
Fiery Momentum +1.00 1 0 0
Clumsy Apprentice +1.00 1 0 0
Drawn Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Rending Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Escape the Wreckage -1.00 0 1 0
Zephyr's Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Crimson Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Firetongue -1.00 0 1 0
Warrior's Longsword -1.00 0 1 0
Prismatic Edge +1.00 1 0 0
Tempered Steel +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Crux Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/8855/archetypes/Fire Crux Lorraine