← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.2% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.0% | +1.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tera Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cursed Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Cursebreaker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |