← Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2
Water Dawn of AshesTier 3
at Yeti Gaming Online Regional MRC Season #2
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-5-1
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
42.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1525
· median 1525
· range 1525–1525
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1236
Q3 1423
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tera Tamer | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
