Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Haven Games Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.9% | -5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.8% | -16.5 |
| Water Neos | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer into Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |