Wind AlliesTier 2
at Haven Games Regionals
decks
2
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-7-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.1%
avg ELO -2.5 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1199
· median 1199
· range 1183–1214
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1200
Q3 1358
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Neos | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
