Fire EruptingTier 2
at Haven Games Regionals
decks
3
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-7-2
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.2%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1274
· median 1275
· range 1183–1364
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1200
Q3 1358
1652
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.0% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.0% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Water Neos | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Vanitas | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
