Water NeosTier 2
at Haven Games Regionals
decks
2
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
8-4-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.5%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1318
· range 1210–1426
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1200
Q3 1358
1652
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.8% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
