Water Crux MageTier 2
at Haven Games Regionals
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.8%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1256
· median 1256
· range 1256–1256
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1099
Q1 1200
Q3 1358
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.1% | -8.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.4% | +18.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
