← 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Allies 1 1.2% 7 71.4% 54.5% 59.8% 54.4% 1459 ↑ top
2 Wind Razorgale 6 7.5% 36 68.1% 59.0% 56.5% 52.3% 1361
3 Slimes 14 17.5% 81 57.4% 53.6% 55.5% 52.9% 1365 ↑ top
4 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 1.2% 7 71.4% 57.0% 55.3% 53.0% 1389 ↑ top
5 Fire Aggro 3 3.8% 21 54.8% 52.7% 54.5% 54.7% 1314
6 Fire Crux Mage 5 6.2% 24 50.0% 53.6% 51.3% 53.0% 1413 ↑ top
7 Water Ravishing Mill 9 11.2% 44 52.3% 52.0% 51.1% 51.0% 1312
8 Water Astra Cleric 1 1.2% 7 42.9% 53.9% 51.1% 54.2% 1161 ↓ low
9 Water Penguin Mill 3 3.8% 18 41.7% 49.0% 51.1% 52.9% 1274
10 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 2.5% 11 54.5% 53.1% 50.7% 51.0% 1284
11 Wind Allies 4 5.0% 24 54.2% 52.0% 50.0% 49.7% 1342
12 Wind Astra Cleric 3 3.8% 17 52.9% 51.6% 49.6% 49.9% 1276
13 Wind Shadowstrike 10 12.5% 51 50.0% 50.5% 47.4% 49.1% 1290
14 Water Tera Mage 1 1.2% 7 42.9% 49.0% 47.3% 48.6% 1272
15 Fire Crux Merlin 1 1.2% 7 50.0% 55.3% 47.3% 49.2% 1229 ↓ low
16 Wind Crux Mage 1 1.2% 7 35.7% 50.0% 46.4% 49.5% 1062 ↓ low
17 Fire Slimes 2 2.5% 14 50.0% 45.9% 46.4% 45.8% 1335
18 Water Neos 1 1.2% 7 50.0% 47.9% 46.0% 45.8% 1276
19 Wind Kongming 1 1.2% 7 21.4% 35.3% 44.2% 45.3% 1139 ↓ low
20 Wind Tera Mage 2 2.5% 8 25.0% 43.3% 43.9% 47.1% 1055 ↓ low
21 Fire Arcane 1 1.2% 2 0.0% 32.1% 40.0% 38.8% 1471 ↑ top
22 Fire Astra Cleric 1 1.2% 1 0.0% 45.9% 40.0% 45.9% 1075 ↓ low
23 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 1.2% 7 28.6% 36.8% 39.4% 40.3% 1122 ↓ low
24 Fire Exia 6 7.5% 23 10.9% 24.7% 32.2% 36.6% 1241 ↓ low