EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Aria's Cardshop Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Penguin Mill | 3 | 9.4% | 16 | 84.4% | 76.3% | 61.1% | 60.4% | 1377 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Slimes | 3 | 9.4% | 17 | 64.7% | 45.6% | 55.8% | 49.6% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.2% | 55.0% | 53.1% | 1312 | — |
| 4 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 6.2% | 12 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 52.5% | 54.1% | 1448 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 3 | 9.4% | 16 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 51.0% | 51.4% | 1319 | — |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 45.0% | 53.3% | 50.7% | 53.3% | 1287 | — |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 9.4% | 15 | 43.3% | 42.9% | 49.2% | 48.6% | 1369 | — |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 6.2% | 8 | 50.0% | 53.1% | 48.5% | 50.2% | 1332 | — |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 4 | 12.5% | 16 | 40.6% | 43.2% | 46.3% | 46.8% | 1274 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 40.9% | 44.3% | 46.0% | 46.2% | 1317 | — |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 5 | 15.6% | 22 | 36.4% | 41.2% | 45.8% | 46.9% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 6.2% | 8 | 12.5% | 36.5% | 42.1% | 45.9% | 1148 | ↓ low |