Fire ArcaneTier 2
at AMB Texas Regional
decks
2
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.2%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1083–1607
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1191
Q3 1381
1607
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Water Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
