Water Penguin MillTier 1

at AMB Texas Regional

decks

6 (12.2% of field)

matches (non-mirror)

30 17-6-7

overall winrate

68.3%

ELO-adjusted winrate

59.6% avg ELO +3.5 per match

expected value

56.0% share-weighted (raw)

EV (ELO-adj)

53.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)

Pilot Skill ↑ top

mean ELO 1360 · median 1348 · range 1191–1526 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)

1046 Q1 1191 Q3 1381 1607

50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).

Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent	Their share	Matches	W-L-D	Raw WR	Shrunk WR	Adj WR	ELO Δ/match
Slimes	12.2%	6	3-1-2	66.7%	60.0%	60.5%	+5.6
Wind Razorgale	8.2%	2	1-1-0	50.0%	50.0%	43.3%	-6.4
Fire Aggro	6.1%	5	3-2-0	60.0%	55.6%	55.3%	+3.0
Fire Exia	6.1%	2	0-0-2	50.0%	50.0%	53.5%	+3.3
Fire Slimes	6.1%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.0%	+14.4
Water Ravishing Mill	6.1%	2	0-1-1	25.0%	41.7%	41.2%	-8.4
Wind Allies	6.1%	4	2-1-1	62.5%	56.2%	44.5%	-3.5
Wind Shadowstrike	6.1%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	52.8%	+4.4
Fire Arcane	4.1%	2	2-0-0	100.0%	66.7%	60.7%	+10.3
Fire Crux Mage	4.1%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Allies	4.1%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	55.3%	+8.4
Water Crux Lorraine	4.1%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	59.7%	+15.4
Fire Astra Cleric	2.0%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Crux Merlin	2.0%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Ravishing Mill	2.0%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	60.4%	+16.6
Fire Tera Mage	2.0%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Fire Umbra Ranger	2.0%	0	—	—	—	—	—
Water Slimes	2.0%	1	0-0-1	50.0%	50.0%	54.1%	+6.5
Wind Slice & Dice	2.0%	1	1-0-0	100.0%	60.0%	53.7%	+5.9

Decklists · 6 from this event

The 6 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Rippleback Terrapin, Wind Resonance Bauble. Losers more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron, Water Barrier.

↑ Played more by winners

Song of Frost

Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Rippleback Terrapin

Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Wind Resonance Bauble

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Primordial Ritual

Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Mystic Purifier

Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

Beastbond Boots

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.0.

Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.

↓ Played more by losers