Fire ExiaTier 2
at AMB Texas Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.2% | +6.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Cavalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |