Fire Crux MageTier 1
at AMB Texas Regional
decks
2
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.0%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1411
· median 1411
· range 1381–1441
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1191
Q3 1381
1607
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.2% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 59.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Fire Exia | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Water Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
