Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at AMB Texas Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |