Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at AMB Texas Regional
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1178
· median 1178
· range 1178–1178
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1046
Q1 1191
Q3 1381
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Exia | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
