← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong

Fire SlimesTier 1

at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong

decks
10 (9.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57 28-24-5
overall winrate
53.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.4% avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
52.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1257 · median 1234 · range 1124–1390 (10 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064 Q1 1174 Q3 1342 1730
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 14.9% 8 7-1-0 87.5% 75.0% 71.4% +10.3
Fire Crux Mage 12.9% 9 4-3-2 55.6% 53.8% 50.9% +0.4
Water Ravishing Mill 10.9% 6 1-5-0 16.7% 30.0% 32.4% -9.4
Water Penguin Mill 7.9% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 57.0% +4.5
Wind Astra Cleric 6.9% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 44.4% -3.0
Water Allies 5.9% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 33.5% -12.3
Wind Allies 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.7% +10.7
Wind Shadowstrike 5.0% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 58.2% +7.9
Fire Aggro 3.0% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 50.8% +0.5
Wind Razorgale 3.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.1% +12.6
Water Crux Mage 2.0% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 67.1% +16.4
Water Tera Mage 2.0% 0
Fire Exia 1.0% 0
Fire Exia Jin 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.1% +16.2
Water Astra Cleric 1.0% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 54.8% +4.6
Water Luxem Assassin 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.8% +12.4
Water Neos Tonoris 1.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 31.9% -17.4
Water Slimes 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.0% -12.8
Water Tera Kongming 1.0% 0
Water Umbra Diana 1.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.3% -1.6
Wind Crux Mage 1.0% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 1.0% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.0% 0
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Escape the Wreckage, Ordinary Bear. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Forest Cake, Viridian Protective Trinket.

Played more by winners
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Escape the Wreckage
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Ordinary Bear
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Kind Beastcaller
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.0 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Forest Cake
Losing decks ran 3.5 copies on average, winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Mystic Purifier
Losing decks ran 1.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +0.50 3 1 0
Reduce to Ash -0.50 1 3 0
Forest Cake -0.50 1 3 0
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper -0.50 0 2 0
Red Slime +0.50 2 0 2
Escape the Wreckage +0.50 3 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.25 1 2 0
Dungeon Guide +0.25 1 0 3
Ordinary Bear +0.25 2 1 0
Blissful Calling +0.25 1 0 2
Mystic Purifier -0.25 1 2 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.25 1 2 0
Kind Beastcaller +0.25 2 1 0
Lustrous Slime +0.25 1 0 3
Nullifying Lantern +0.25 1 0 3
Stalwart Shieldmate +0.25 1 0 3
Nullifying Mirror -0.25 1 2 0
Vampiric Slime +0.25 1 0 0
Vermilion Decree -0.25 0 1 0
Heavenly Guide +0.25 1 0 0
Slime King -0.25 0 1 0
Thunderclap -0.25 0 1 0
Shout at Your Pets -0.25 0 1 0
Flamebreak Chorus -0.25 0 1 0
Library Witch +0.25 1 0 0
Ordinary Horse +0.25 1 0 0
Gaia's Songbird +0.25 1 0 0
Lavasoul Tiger -0.25 0 1 0
Tera Sight -0.25 0 1 0
Twilight Slime -0.25 0 1 0
Beastbond Boots +0.00 1 1 2
Hymn of Gaia's Grace +0.00 2 2 0
Scavenging Raccoon +0.00 1 1 2
Turbo Charge +0.00 2 2 0
Reprogram +0.00 1 1 0
Verdant Slime +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/14867/archetypes/Fire Slimes