← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
decks
2
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.9%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1260
· median 1260
· range 1182–1338
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1174
Q3 1342
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -16.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
