← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong

Water Crux MageTier 2

at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong

decks
2 (2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8 3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.9% avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
48.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1260 · median 1260 · range 1182–1338 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064 Q1 1174 Q3 1342 1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 14.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.0% +16.0
Fire Crux Mage 12.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.7% -0.3
Water Ravishing Mill 10.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.2% -15.8
Fire Slimes 9.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 32.9% -16.4
Water Penguin Mill 7.9% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 6.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.7% +12.3
Water Allies 5.9% 0
Wind Allies 5.0% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 5.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.5% -10.4
Fire Aggro 3.0% 0
Wind Razorgale 3.0% 0
Water Tera Mage 2.0% 0
Fire Exia 1.0% 0
Fire Exia Jin 1.0% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.0% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.0% 0
Water Neos Tonoris 1.0% 0
Water Slimes 1.0% 0
Water Tera Kongming 1.0% 0
Water Umbra Diana 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.0% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 1.0% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.0% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/14867/archetypes/Water Crux Mage