← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.9% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -4.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.1% | -0.5 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 60.8% | +6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |