← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
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at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.9% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 28.6% | -10.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.9% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 46.2% | -2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.1% | -10.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.0% | +9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.7% | -12.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 56.0% | +3.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Unbroken Mustang. Losers more often ran: Slime Eruption, Escape the Wreckage.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lustrous Slime | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Horn of Beastcalling | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Key Slime Pudding | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Bauble of Mending | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Slime Eruption | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stonescale Band | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime Nexus | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime's Blessing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tera Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mechanical Hare | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slime King | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |