← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong

SlimesTier 2

at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong

decks
15 (14.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
57 17-34-6
overall winrate
35.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.1% avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
42.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1231 · median 1233 · range 1110–1367 (15 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064 Q1 1174 Q3 1342 1730
13% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 12.9% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -0.5
Water Ravishing Mill 10.9% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 41.8% -5.2
Fire Slimes 9.9% 8 1-7-0 12.5% 25.0% 28.6% -10.3
Water Penguin Mill 7.9% 7 1-4-2 28.6% 36.4% 49.6% -0.2
Wind Astra Cleric 6.9% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% -2.1
Water Allies 5.9% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 46.2% -2.0
Wind Allies 5.0% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 36.1% -10.4
Wind Shadowstrike 5.0% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 64.0% +9.0
Fire Aggro 3.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.2% -14.0
Wind Razorgale 3.0% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 32.7% -12.9
Water Crux Mage 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% -16.0
Water Tera Mage 2.0% 4 2-1-1 62.5% 56.2% 56.0% +3.9
Fire Exia 1.0% 0
Fire Exia Jin 1.0% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.0% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.3% +13.3
Water Neos Tonoris 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.9% -14.6
Water Slimes 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.8% -16.3
Water Tera Kongming 1.0% 0
Water Umbra Diana 1.0% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.1% +1.7
Wind Umbra Diana 1.0% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 1.0% 0
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Unbroken Mustang. Losers more often ran: Slime Eruption, Escape the Wreckage.

Played more by winners
Unbroken Mustang
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Slime Eruption
Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 3.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Escape the Wreckage
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 3.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Lustrous Slime -0.67 0 2 1
Nascent Blast +0.67 2 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.67 2 0 0
Tariff Ring +0.67 2 0 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.67 2 0 0
Horn of Beastcalling +0.33 1 0 2
Key Slime Pudding -0.33 0 1 0
Unbroken Mustang +0.33 2 1 0
Idle Thoughts -0.33 0 1 0
Beastbond Boots +0.33 1 0 2
Bauble of Mending -0.33 0 1 0
Backup Charger +0.33 1 0 2
Life Essence Amulet -0.33 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon -0.33 0 1 2
Gaia's Songbird +0.33 1 0 2
Slime Eruption -0.33 1 2 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.33 1 0 2
Stonescale Band +0.33 1 0 2
Escape the Wreckage -0.33 1 2 0
Slime Nexus -0.33 0 1 0
Beastbond Ears -0.33 0 1 0
Slime's Blessing -0.33 0 1 1
Nullifying Lantern -0.33 0 1 1
Tera Sight +0.33 1 0 0
Mechanical Hare +0.33 1 0 0
Twilight Slime +0.33 1 0 0
Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia -0.33 0 1 0
Academy Guide -0.33 0 1 0
Resolute Stand -0.33 0 1 0
Hymn of Gaia's Grace -0.33 0 1 0
Blissful Calling +0.00 1 1 1
Slimeshield +0.00 1 1 1
Slime King +0.00 1 1 0
Kind Beastcaller +0.00 1 1 1
Baby Blue Slime +0.00 1 1 0
Mystic Purifier +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/14867/archetypes/Slimes