← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.0% | -9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.4% | -6.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 9.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.4% | -1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sharpening Stone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swerving Spring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |