← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Water AlliesTier 1
at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
decks
6
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41
19-18-4
overall winrate
51.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1330
· median 1243
· range 1162–1574
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1174
Q3 1342
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.8% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.9% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 37.8% | -5.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.5% | +12.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -15.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.6% | -3.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.6 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
