← Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Home-run Mortal Ambition Season Regional - Hong Kong
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.9% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 67.6% | +9.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.9% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.9% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 58.7% | +4.2 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 62.2% | +5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.8% | +8.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 72.0% | +14.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Tideholder Claymore, Freezing Steel, Nia, Mistveiled Scout. Losers more often ran: Primordial Ritual, Nullifying Lantern, Vaporjet Shield.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Freeze Stiff | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cao Cao, Aspirant of Chaos | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Naia, Diviner of Fortunes | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |