← CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Arisanna 1 1.1% 7 71.4% 56.6% 55.9% 53.6% 1474 ↑ top
2 Water Allies 4 4.4% 27 61.1% 55.1% 54.7% 53.4% 1438 ↑ top
3 Water Crux Mage 2 2.2% 10 65.0% 47.8% 54.6% 49.2% 1459 ↑ top
4 Water Fractal 1 1.1% 7 71.4% 58.3% 53.6% 50.8% 1465 ↑ top
5 Water Umbra Diana 1 1.1% 7 57.1% 54.3% 53.4% 52.5% 1055 ↓ low
6 Wind Neos 1 1.1% 7 50.0% 52.5% 53.1% 54.2% 1183 ↓ low
7 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 1.1% 7 57.1% 58.6% 52.8% 53.9% 1426 ↑ top
8 Wind Luxem Zander 3 3.3% 19 60.5% 47.0% 52.7% 47.3% 1506 ↑ top
9 Water Penguin Mill 9 10.0% 45 53.3% 51.5% 51.9% 51.3% 1370 ↑ top
10 Water Silvie 3 3.3% 17 50.0% 49.4% 51.6% 51.2% 1351
11 Fire Crux Mage 5 5.6% 28 51.8% 46.2% 51.5% 48.4% 1310
12 Water Ravishing Mill 8 8.9% 39 55.1% 45.4% 51.4% 47.3% 1339
13 Wind Shadowstrike 4 4.4% 22 52.3% 52.9% 50.9% 51.3% 1350
14 Fire Aggro 6 6.7% 39 52.6% 55.7% 50.9% 51.7% 1312
15 Slimes 11 12.2% 51 50.0% 57.3% 49.2% 52.2% 1228 ↓ low
16 Water Luxem Assassin 2 2.2% 12 45.8% 49.7% 49.1% 50.3% 1186 ↓ low
17 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 1.1% 7 35.7% 50.4% 48.6% 51.6% 1134 ↓ low
18 Wind Astra Cleric 6 6.7% 30 50.0% 56.7% 47.8% 51.2% 1244
19 Fire Ravishing Mill 1 1.1% 7 50.0% 44.7% 47.8% 46.5% 1301
20 Wind Crux Mage 1 1.1% 7 42.9% 43.8% 47.3% 46.8% 1368 ↑ top
21 Water Exia 1 1.1% 7 57.1% 46.8% 47.1% 45.9% 1250
22 Wind Allies 5 5.6% 20 47.5% 45.2% 47.0% 45.7% 1229 ↓ low
23 Fire Slimes 2 2.2% 10 40.0% 44.3% 46.9% 48.0% 1211 ↓ low
24 Wind Razorgale 1 1.1% 7 50.0% 61.8% 44.7% 48.6% 1445 ↑ top
25 Fire Exia 3 3.3% 12 20.8% 32.7% 43.3% 44.2% 1110 ↓ low
26 Water Tera Mage 3 3.3% 8 12.5% 32.1% 42.6% 44.5% 1121 ↓ low
27 Fire Neos 1 1.1% 5 20.0% 35.9% 40.2% 42.1% 1159 ↓ low
28 Fire Arcane 1 1.1% 4 0.0% 41.2% 40.0% 46.5% 1060 ↓ low
29 Wind Slice & Dice 1 1.1% 1 0.0% 43.8% 40.0% 43.8% 1174 ↓ low
30 Wind Exia 1 1.1% 5 0.0% 24.5% 38.3% 38.7% 1241