← Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition).
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 3 | 8.3% | 12 | 95.8% | 74.1% | 63.3% | 58.9% | 1508 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Penguin Mill | 3 | 8.3% | 16 | 65.6% | 55.1% | 55.9% | 52.8% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 5.6% | 10 | 70.0% | 51.5% | 55.2% | 50.8% | 1485 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 3 | 8.3% | 16 | 65.6% | 61.7% | 55.1% | 54.5% | 1372 | — |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 3 | 8.3% | 18 | 52.8% | 53.5% | 52.5% | 52.7% | 1380 | — |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 4 | 11.1% | 18 | 50.0% | 41.6% | 51.7% | 47.4% | 1372 | — |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 5.6% | 10 | 45.0% | 53.0% | 50.7% | 52.9% | 1331 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 6 | 16.7% | 28 | 44.6% | 52.2% | 45.8% | 49.5% | 1287 | — |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.8% | 44.0% | 45.0% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 25.0% | 43.2% | 43.3% | 47.6% | 1396 | — |
| 11 | Fire Tera Mage | 1 | 2.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 42.6% | 42.7% | 44.0% | 1158 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Slimes | 6 | 16.7% | 29 | 32.8% | 39.0% | 40.9% | 44.0% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.8% | 5 | 0.0% | 32.2% | 37.5% | 41.4% | 1038 | ↓ low |