EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mox Valley Games AMB Regional. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Lorraine

54.1%

2.1% share · 6 matches

1st

Water Penguin Mill

55.9%

10.6% share · 24 matches

2.1% share · 5 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Penguin Mill	5	10.6%	24	70.8%	62.8%	55.9%	54.6%	1377	↑ top
2	Wind Lorraine	1	2.1%	6	75.0%	67.5%	54.1%	55.7%	1308	—
3	Slimes	1	2.1%	5	50.0%	56.6%	52.7%	56.0%	1203	↓ low
4	Water Ravishing Mill	5	10.6%	21	59.5%	43.2%	52.0%	45.9%	1363	↑ top
5	Water Crux Mage	2	4.3%	12	54.2%	41.9%	50.9%	47.3%	1302	—
6	Fire Crux Mage	5	10.6%	30	51.7%	51.9%	50.7%	52.0%	1282	—
7	Water Umbra Tristan	1	2.1%	7	57.1%	45.5%	50.4%	48.2%	1302	—
8	Wind Razorgale	4	8.5%	23	52.2%	55.6%	49.8%	51.7%	1297	—
9	Fire Aggro	5	10.6%	25	50.0%	51.5%	49.4%	50.3%	1248	—
10	Fire Arcane	1	2.1%	6	66.7%	60.0%	49.3%	49.4%	1471	↑ top
11	Wind Astra Cleric	4	8.5%	22	50.0%	49.0%	49.1%	48.9%	1379	↑ top
12	Fire Crux Merlin	2	4.3%	12	54.2%	54.7%	48.3%	49.5%	1250	—
13	Wind Diana	1	2.1%	5	40.0%	50.2%	47.8%	49.7%	1134	↓ low
14	Wind Shadowstrike	2	4.3%	11	45.5%	48.1%	47.8%	48.6%	1234	—
15	Wind Dawn of Ashes	1	2.1%	6	25.0%	41.0%	46.5%	48.6%	1091	↓ low
16	Water Allies	1	2.1%	6	33.3%	51.3%	46.1%	50.9%	1310	—
17	Fire Exia	3	6.4%	18	36.1%	45.4%	45.2%	48.1%	1098	↓ low
18	Water Arisanna	1	2.1%	5	20.0%	30.9%	44.8%	43.8%	1357	↑ top
19	Fire Arisanna	1	2.1%	5	30.0%	46.9%	43.1%	48.0%	1267	—
20	Water Umbra Ranger	2	4.3%	11	18.2%	33.3%	40.7%	43.4%	1183	↓ low