← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Fire ArcaneTier 1
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
decks
5
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
17-14-4
overall winrate
54.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1267
· median 1301
· range 1095–1418
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1173
Q3 1390
1685
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 57.8% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 62.3% | +7.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.7% | -9.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
