← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
decks
3
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
5-10-1
overall winrate
34.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.8%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
46.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1208
· median 1171
· range 1064–1389
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1173
Q3 1390
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.8% | -11.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
