← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Wind Crux MageTier 2
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
decks
2
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-5-2
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.3%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1327
· median 1327
· range 1148–1507
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1173
Q3 1390
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.3% | -8.3 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -16.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
