← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1

at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT

decks
11 (12.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
65 31-28-6
overall winrate
52.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0% avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
50.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1315 · median 1296 · range 1090–1685 (11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043 Q1 1173 Q3 1390 1685
18% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 17.4% 12 6-4-2 58.3% 56.2% 52.7% +1.1
Fire Crux Mage 13.0% 11 6-5-0 54.5% 53.3% 45.3% -2.1
Fire Umbra Ranger 10.9% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 45.6% -2.1
Fire Crux Hybrid 7.6% 6 1-4-1 25.0% 35.0% 39.3% -5.7
Water Allies 6.5% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 53.1% +1.7
Fire Aggro 5.4% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.3% -1.1
Fire Arcane 5.4% 5 1-3-1 30.0% 38.9% 37.7% -7.1
Fire Erupting 5.4% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 55.0% +3.2
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.9% -16.2
Fire Crux Merlin 2.2% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 40.2% -9.4
Wind Crux Mage 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.0% +14.3
Wind Tera Silvie 2.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 48.8% -1.2
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.3% +12.8
Fire Neos Tonoris 1.1% 0
Fire Tera Silvie 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.4% +8.6
Water Astra Cleric 1.1% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.1% 0
Water Neos Tonoris 1.1% 0
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Uncover the Plot -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Planted Explosive +1.00 1 0 0
Spurn to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Orb of Hubris -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Focused Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Serum of Wisdom -1.00 0 1 0
Vanish from Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Orb of Choking Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Orb of Regret +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail +1.00 1 0 0
Gawain, Chivalrous Thief +1.00 1 0 0
Thieving Cut -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/1733/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin