← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 12 | 6-4-2 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 52.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 45.3% | -2.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.6% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 39.3% | -5.7 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 37.7% | -7.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.2% | -9.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |