← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT

decks
12 (13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
69 35-31-3
overall winrate
52.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.3% avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
51.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1300 · median 1293 · range 1127–1518 (12 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043 Q1 1173 Q3 1390 1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 17.4% 13 9-4-0 69.2% 64.7% 65.0% +6.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 12.0% 11 5-6-0 45.5% 46.7% 54.7% +2.1
Fire Umbra Ranger 10.9% 14 8-6-0 57.1% 55.6% 53.5% +1.5
Fire Crux Hybrid 7.6% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 27.7% -14.3
Water Allies 6.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.1% +2.9
Fire Aggro 5.4% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 39.2% -6.9
Fire Arcane 5.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.6% +13.1
Fire Erupting 5.4% 5 2-2-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.3% -2.1
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.3% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 55.0% +3.8
Fire Crux Merlin 2.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.8% -14.6
Wind Crux Mage 2.2% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 41.1% -8.5
Wind Tera Silvie 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.7% +17.1
Fire Crux Lorraine 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.2% +16.4
Fire Neos Tonoris 1.1% 0
Fire Tera Silvie 1.1% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 41.8% -13.1
Water Luxem Assassin 1.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.8% +15.2
Water Neos Tonoris 1.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.9% -0.1
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Purge in Flames, Honorable Vanguard, Sudden Steel. Losers more often ran: Focused Flames, Flame Sweep, Tithe Proclamation.

Played more by winners
Purge in Flames
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Honorable Vanguard
Winning decks ran 2.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 1.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.8 copies on average, losing decks 3.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 2.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Spark Alight
Winning decks ran 2.4 copies on average, losing decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Played more by losers
Focused Flames
Losing decks ran 2.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 1.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Tithe Proclamation
Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Exorcise Curses
Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 3.6 copies on average, winning decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 3.2 copies on average, winning decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Purge in Flames +0.80 4 0 0
Focused Flames -0.80 0 4 0
Honorable Vanguard +0.80 4 0 0
Flame Sweep -0.60 0 3 0
Sudden Steel +0.60 3 0 0
Cremation Ritual +0.60 4 1 0
Library Witch +0.60 3 0 2
Tithe Proclamation -0.40 1 3 1
Sword of Adversity -0.40 0 2 0
Spurn to Ash -0.40 0 2 0
Exorcise Curses -0.40 1 3 1
Fast Cure -0.40 1 3 1
Spark Alight +0.40 3 1 1
Morgan, Soul Guide +0.40 3 1 0
Swift Recruit -0.40 0 2 0
Quicksilver Grail -0.40 0 2 2
Chalice of Blood +0.40 2 0 0
Scry the Skies +0.40 2 0 0
Resolute Stand -0.20 1 2 2
Incarnate Majesty -0.20 0 1 4
Nullifying Lantern -0.20 0 1 3
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.20 0 1 4
Ornamental Greatsword +0.20 1 0 0
Hasty Messenger +0.20 2 1 2
Spirit Blade: Ascension -0.20 1 2 0
Chilling Touch -0.20 1 2 0
Prismatic Edge +0.20 1 0 2
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.20 2 1 0
Devastating Blow +0.20 2 1 0
Meltdown -0.20 1 2 0
Repelling Palmblast +0.20 1 0 0
Favorable Winds +0.20 1 0 0
Erupting Rhapsody +0.20 1 0 0
Bulwark Sword +0.20 1 0 1
Varuckan Acolyte -0.20 0 1 0
Crimson Protective Trinket -0.20 0 1 0
Azure Protective Trinket -0.20 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.00 1 1 3
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.00 2 2 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +0.00 2 2 1
Crux Sight +0.00 2 2 1
Rending Flames +0.00 1 1 0
Incendiary Fractal +0.00 2 2 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.00 1 1 1
Disintegrate +0.00 1 1 1
Water Resonance Bauble +0.00 1 1 0
Tether in Flames +0.00 1 1 0
Blazing Throw +0.00 1 1 0
Fiery Momentum +0.00 1 1 0
Warrior's Longsword +0.00 1 1 0
Tempered Steel +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/1733/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage