← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Water AlliesTier 1
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 35.9% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 46.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.5% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.3% | +9.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.0% | -9.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.2% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |