← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Wind AlliesTier 2
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
decks
16
(17.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
99
43-48-8
overall winrate
47.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301
· median 1291
· range 1102–1536
(16 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1173
Q3 1390
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
12% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 13 | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 35.3% | 35.0% | -6.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 12 | 4-6-2 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 47.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.9% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 55.7% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.6% | 12 | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 34.4% | 34.6% | -6.6 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 64.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 63.8% | +7.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 42.2% | -3.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.4% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.1% | -6.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.1 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.9% | -12.6 |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Inspiring Call, Mark of Fervor, Reclaim. Losers more often ran: Seeking Shot, Attune with the Winds.
Inspiring Call
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Mark of Fervor
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Esteemed Knight
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Seeking Shot
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Attune with the Winds
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 88 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 68 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Mark of Fervor | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windwalker Boots | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Coup de Grace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Phalanx Captain | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Weaponsmith | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sharpening Stone | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ordinary Bear | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Earth's Tune | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Effigy of Gaia | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arima, Gaia's Wings | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Green Slime | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Capricious Lynx | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, With the Pack | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Loved by All | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |