← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 44.3% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 14 | 6-8-0 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 46.5% | -1.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.6% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.5% | -13.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.4% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 35.8% | -7.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Increasing Danger, Deploy Gunshield, Carter, Synthetic Reaper. Losers more often ran: Airship Engineer, Umbral Tithe, Water Resonance Bauble.
Show all 65 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airship Engineer | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -0.60 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crimson Tear | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| False Step | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Force Load | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadecursed Hunter | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reposition | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Library Witch | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Duelist | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penetrator Round | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Load Soul | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Violet Haze | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Cover | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Cursebreaker | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireworks Display | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Demon's Aim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |