← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Silvie | 2 | 1.2% | 16 | 75.0% | 58.5% | 60.1% | 54.5% | 1585 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Zander | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 75.0% | 58.0% | 59.3% | 54.8% | 1499 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Penguin Mill | 16 | 9.8% | 96 | 61.5% | 57.3% | 58.5% | 55.6% | 1348 | — |
| 4 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 93.8% | 71.6% | 58.5% | 56.3% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 56.2% | 52.7% | 53.3% | 52.3% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 62.5% | 46.5% | 53.0% | 49.0% | 1591 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 3 | 1.8% | 20 | 55.0% | 57.5% | 52.6% | 54.4% | 1291 | — |
| 8 | Water Allies | 6 | 3.7% | 42 | 54.8% | 49.2% | 52.1% | 49.9% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 2 | 1.2% | 14 | 53.6% | 62.2% | 51.9% | 54.8% | 1399 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 8 | 4.9% | 50 | 49.0% | 49.2% | 51.6% | 51.2% | 1281 | — |
| 11 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 1.8% | 16 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 51.2% | 49.8% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 11 | 6.7% | 63 | 52.4% | 50.5% | 51.1% | 50.4% | 1352 | — |
| 13 | Slimes | 19 | 11.7% | 116 | 50.9% | 53.0% | 50.7% | 52.4% | 1242 | — |
| 14 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 55.2% | 50.4% | 54.5% | 996 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 10 | 6.1% | 60 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | 50.1% | 1243 | — |
| 16 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 1.2% | 14 | 50.0% | 53.7% | 49.7% | 51.3% | 1283 | — |
| 17 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 1.2% | 14 | 46.4% | 41.0% | 49.7% | 47.1% | 1344 | — |
| 18 | Water Astra Cleric | 3 | 1.8% | 22 | 40.9% | 44.2% | 49.4% | 50.2% | 1284 | — |
| 19 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 50.0% | 55.8% | 49.0% | 50.9% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 43.8% | 50.0% | 48.9% | 49.8% | 1139 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Slimes | 12 | 7.4% | 69 | 47.1% | 50.0% | 48.0% | 49.1% | 1249 | — |
| 22 | Fire Crux Mage | 9 | 5.5% | 51 | 44.1% | 46.4% | 47.7% | 48.4% | 1315 | — |
| 23 | Wind Astra Cleric | 22 | 13.5% | 129 | 46.1% | 48.4% | 47.7% | 49.4% | 1309 | — |
| 24 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 45.8% | 45.5% | 46.1% | 1272 | — |
| 25 | Wind Kongming | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.1% | 45.1% | 42.4% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 26 | Wind Neos | 1 | 0.6% | 8 | 31.2% | 40.7% | 45.1% | 46.8% | 1249 | — |
| 27 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 42.6% | 44.8% | 47.0% | 1243 | — |
| 28 | Water Ravishing Mill | 17 | 10.4% | 93 | 44.6% | 43.6% | 43.6% | 43.1% | 1263 | — |
| 29 | Wind Umbra Tristan | 1 | 0.6% | 5 | 30.0% | 48.7% | 43.4% | 47.9% | 1148 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Water Crux Mage | 3 | 1.8% | 14 | 28.6% | 29.7% | 43.3% | 42.0% | 1273 | — |
| 31 | Fire Arisanna | 1 | 0.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.6% | 40.0% | 45.9% | 959 | ↓ low |