EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at EVO Japan Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.6% | 9 | 83.3% | 75.6% | 56.2% | 57.1% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 53.0% | 55.1% | 53.6% | 1210 | — |
| 3 | Fire Astra Cleric | 2 | 3.1% | 15 | 60.0% | 63.1% | 54.9% | 56.8% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 7 | 10.9% | 35 | 61.4% | 58.3% | 53.1% | 52.8% | 1255 | — |
| 5 | Slimes | 4 | 6.2% | 15 | 60.0% | 57.6% | 52.6% | 52.5% | 1278 | — |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 7 | 10.9% | 30 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 51.7% | 52.7% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 4.7% | 16 | 53.1% | 46.3% | 51.5% | 49.3% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Penguin Mill | 3 | 4.7% | 17 | 52.9% | 46.0% | 50.9% | 49.0% | 1330 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 2 | 3.1% | 8 | 56.2% | 58.1% | 50.7% | 52.1% | 1252 | — |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 5 | 7.8% | 25 | 52.0% | 45.8% | 50.4% | 47.6% | 1283 | — |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 5 | 7.8% | 19 | 39.5% | 41.5% | 49.9% | 50.1% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 6.2% | 19 | 47.4% | 52.4% | 49.2% | 51.3% | 1273 | — |
| 13 | Water Allies | 3 | 4.7% | 18 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 48.2% | 49.1% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Razorgale | 8 | 12.5% | 37 | 45.9% | 45.6% | 45.9% | 45.6% | 1223 | — |
| 15 | Water Crux Mage | 3 | 4.7% | 15 | 36.7% | 43.2% | 45.6% | 47.7% | 1272 | — |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.0% | 43.3% | 44.0% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Wind Vanitas | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 49.1% | 42.2% | 44.5% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.9% | 40.0% | 41.2% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.0% | 40.6% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1195 | — |
| 20 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.6% | 5 | 0.0% | 25.6% | 40.0% | 41.3% | 1028 | ↓ low |