← Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Crux Lorraine | 2 | 1.9% | 18 | 72.2% | 71.4% | 58.3% | 59.5% | 1317 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 8 | 7.5% | 62 | 62.9% | 61.7% | 56.2% | 56.1% | 1380 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Allies | 17 | 16.0% | 103 | 59.7% | 59.7% | 56.1% | 56.3% | 1342 | — |
| 4 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.9% | 6 | 66.7% | 55.6% | 55.8% | 52.9% | 1702 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 13 | 12.3% | 76 | 53.9% | 53.6% | 53.5% | 53.4% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Erupting | 8 | 7.5% | 47 | 54.3% | 56.6% | 52.5% | 54.1% | 1287 | — |
| 7 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 10 | 9.4% | 57 | 48.2% | 43.0% | 50.4% | 47.1% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 1.9% | 9 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 48.7% | 49.8% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Neos | 1 | 0.9% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.1% | 47.3% | 50.0% | 1111 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Diana | 1 | 0.9% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.4% | 47.1% | 47.0% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 1.9% | 12 | 41.7% | 39.6% | 46.4% | 44.6% | 1270 | — |
| 12 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 10 | 9.4% | 52 | 45.2% | 45.0% | 45.9% | 45.7% | 1264 | — |
| 13 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 1.9% | 7 | 28.6% | 34.8% | 45.5% | 45.0% | 1239 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Beast | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 28.6% | 37.3% | 45.5% | 45.9% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 8 | 7.5% | 41 | 41.5% | 44.8% | 45.5% | 47.0% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Arcane | 3 | 2.8% | 18 | 44.4% | 48.6% | 44.5% | 45.6% | 1235 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 0.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 30.8% | 44.0% | 44.3% | 1268 | — |
| 18 | Wind Allies | 14 | 13.2% | 72 | 41.0% | 42.3% | 42.4% | 42.8% | 1265 | — |
| 19 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 0.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 38.2% | 42.2% | 41.5% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Rogue | 2 | 1.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 31.5% | 40.0% | 39.0% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.0% | 30.5% | 40.0% | 38.3% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 0.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 25.6% | 40.0% | 40.2% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Neos | 1 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.0% | 23.6% | 36.5% | 33.5% | 1141 | ↓ low |