← Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Plenty of Games Oceania Nationals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Crux Lorraine 2 1.9% 18 72.2% 71.4% 58.3% 59.5% 1317
2 Fire Crux Mage 8 7.5% 62 62.9% 61.7% 56.2% 56.1% 1380 ↑ top
3 Water Allies 17 16.0% 103 59.7% 59.7% 56.1% 56.3% 1342
4 Water Umbra Ranger 1 0.9% 6 66.7% 55.6% 55.8% 52.9% 1702 ↑ top
5 Fire Luxem Assassin 13 12.3% 76 53.9% 53.6% 53.5% 53.4% 1365 ↑ top
6 Fire Erupting 8 7.5% 47 54.3% 56.6% 52.5% 54.1% 1287
7 Wind Crux Lorraine 10 9.4% 57 48.2% 43.0% 50.4% 47.1% 1364 ↑ top
8 Water Crux Mage 2 1.9% 9 50.0% 54.2% 48.7% 49.8% 1228 ↓ low
9 Fire Neos 1 0.9% 3 33.3% 46.1% 47.3% 50.0% 1111 ↓ low
10 Fire Diana 1 0.9% 3 33.3% 43.4% 47.1% 47.0% 1171 ↓ low
11 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 1.9% 12 41.7% 39.6% 46.4% 44.6% 1270
12 Fire Umbra Ranger 10 9.4% 52 45.2% 45.0% 45.9% 45.7% 1264
13 Wind Arcane 2 1.9% 7 28.6% 34.8% 45.5% 45.0% 1239 ↓ low
14 Wind Beast 1 0.9% 7 28.6% 37.3% 45.5% 45.9% 1153 ↓ low
15 Fire Aggro 8 7.5% 41 41.5% 44.8% 45.5% 47.0% 1217 ↓ low
16 Fire Arcane 3 2.8% 18 44.4% 48.6% 44.5% 45.6% 1235 ↓ low
17 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 0.9% 6 16.7% 30.8% 44.0% 44.3% 1268
18 Wind Allies 14 13.2% 72 41.0% 42.3% 42.4% 42.8% 1265
19 Fire Crux Hybrid 1 0.9% 6 33.3% 38.2% 42.2% 41.5% 1391 ↑ top
20 Rogue 2 1.9% 2 0.0% 31.5% 40.0% 39.0% 1182 ↓ low
21 Water Neos 1 0.9% 2 0.0% 30.5% 40.0% 38.3% 1162 ↓ low
22 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 0.9% 4 0.0% 25.6% 40.0% 40.2% 1100 ↓ low
23 Wind Neos 1 0.9% 3 0.0% 23.6% 36.5% 33.5% 1141 ↓ low