Fire EruptingTier 1
at Plenty of Games Regionals
decks
5
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
17-10-3
overall winrate
61.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.5%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
58.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1299
· median 1285
· range 1257–1369
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1225
Q3 1378
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.8% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 62.4% | +6.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Water Allies | 13.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.2% | +5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 12.1% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 60.8% | +6.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.3% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
