Water AlliesTier 1
at Plenty of Games Regionals
decks
8
(13.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
21-16-1
overall winrate
56.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1278
· range 1122–1547
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1225
Q3 1378
1702
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.8% | 9 | 8-1-0 | 88.9% | 76.9% | 75.6% | +11.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.0% | -5.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.2% | +4.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 8.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.8% | -5.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.7% | -14.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Neos | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Beast | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Stillwater Patrol, Seeker's Rifle, Trained Sharpshooter. Losers more often ran: Esteemed Knight, Water Resonance Bauble, Fire Resonance Bauble.
Stillwater Patrol
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Seeker's Rifle
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Trained Sharpshooter
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Blastshot Pump
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Diana, Keen Huntress
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tactical Retreat
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Esteemed Knight
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Snow Fairy
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Corhazi Trapper
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 76 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 56 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Guarded Dissipation | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Airship Cruiser | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reposition | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lone Gunslinger | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Into the Fray | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckless Slash | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |