Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Plenty of Games Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.8% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 37.2% | -6.4 |
| Water Allies | 13.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 12.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.1% | +1.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.6% | -8.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 8.6% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 37.6% | -6.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 34.7% | -11.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +20.9 |
| Water Neos | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +20.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Wind Beast | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serum of Wisdom | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thousand Refractions | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Caliburn of Silencing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cunning Broker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |