Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at Plenty of Games Regionals
decks
1
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
54.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1702
· median 1702
· range 1702–1702
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1225
Q3 1378
1702
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 13.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.4 |
| Water Allies | 13.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ranger decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
